At this year's annual meeting, the 2013 heavyweight card company's rare forecast of the market forecast shows a different point of view. The optimists proposed a growth target of more than 10% to 70%, while Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles proposed the goal of almost equal sales in 2012. What makes the predictions among companies different, and where does the heavy truck market go in 2013?
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The report of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the Central Economic Work Conference successively set the tone, basically showing the spirit of expanding domestic demand and a relatively optimistic tone. This has become the backbone of many industries, but as a heavy truck company, the GDP growth rate with the largest correlation is estimated to be around 8%, which is only slightly better than 2012 and even. The Chinese economy is facing transformation and structural adjustment. Slowed down. Among them, although the investment will recover, the real estate and other industries will rebound slightly, and the consumption will stabilize, which will bring a positive effect to the medium- and heavy-duty trucks, but the increase in heavy industrial products will continue to decline. In 2013 and in the future, the world economy will continue to show a “weak growthâ€. China’s overseas economy will continue its weak recovery. Exports may be slightly better than this year, but it is still not enough to change the overall situation.
The deciding factor for truck companies to remain cautious is the implementation of the National IV emission regulations, which will be the biggest challenge for the industry in 2013. Technical difficulty, implementation conditions (oil products, etc.) will have a great impact on heavy truck sales. More importantly, the implementation of the National IV emissions will greatly increase the cost of the entire vehicle, increase the cost of purchasing and using the customer by about 30,000 yuan, which is much higher than the 15,000 yuan transferred by the country II to the country III. In Dongfeng’s view, the superimposed effects of excess capacity and regulatory upgrades will curb their own demand for 40,000 vehicles. The State IV will also become the watershed of the market next year. The proportion of industry demand in the first half of 2013 will be 65:35.
China IV emission upgrade is not just a matter of replacing the engine. It has a series of adjustments for the entire vehicle platform. Because the announcement on the new vehicle takes a lot of money and time, Dongfeng directly puts together the entire vehicle platform including the engine. announcement. After the implementation of State IV on July 1st next year, Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle will launch this modified version of the vehicle, while the former National III Vehicle will no longer be produced for the domestic market.
However, there is great uncertainty as to whether National IV emission standards can be implemented as scheduled on July 1. In order to upgrade emissions, companies have to do a lot of work from procurement to production and service. The rigorous conditions of previous emissions upgrades have caused great difficulties for companies to make decisions. The longer the national IV emissions are delayed, the more unfavorable the company is.
4 trillion, car to the countryside, villages and villages, etc. are undoubtedly not driven by policies, but from the 18th National Congress, encouragement policies may be more difficult to introduce, pulling the heavy truck market from the policy to reduce the burden. This kind of burden reduction is not only in the reduction of administrative measures such as taxation and other economic measures and procedures, but also more importantly to help companies reduce their burden on ideology. Only by continuously strengthening the stringent degree of enforcement of various types of policies, there are laws and regulations that must be followed in order for companies to grasp their follow-up judgments, and allow companies to make big strides forward.