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In the current lighting industry, it is no wonder that LED is considered to be OUT. It is no wonder that LED has surpassed the traditional three-primary fluorescent light source with its unparalleled competitive advantage. It is just around the corner. With the decline in annual chip prices and the gradual breakthrough in technical barriers such as heat dissipation, packaging, and standardization, the speed of this replacement is leaps and bounds.
Ever since, whether it is the upstream chip company, the mid-stream packaging company, or the downstream application company, they are all in the Eight Immortals crossing the sea, all of them are fascinating, trying to get a huge LED market, trying to get a piece of it.
What will happen to the future LED market? This is a matter of great concern to everyone, but no one dares to judge easily. Of course, except for the big fairy or the god stick. The author is certainly not a big fairy or a god stick, but just a bystander who cares about the lighting industry.
But perhaps, bystanders are clear, the authorities are fascinated. Therefore, it is difficult to clearly plan the future LED market structure on the time node. At least, the author's rough repair is temporarily impossible. However, the development trend of the next five years can be roughly judged.
First of all, LED as a kind of illuminating technology has become more and more characteristic of consumer electronic products. We know that consumer electronic products, with the continuous upgrading of technology, are very fast, and the price is constantly falling. . Therefore, the foreseeable future is that as the chip continues to upgrade, the constant decline in price costs is an inevitable trend. Therefore, the first wave of the lighting industry must be the large-scale replacement of traditional light sources with LEDs. This must be known and recognized by everyone.
Secondly, because LED has the attributes of consumer electronics, it is inevitable that in the future competition, companies that have opened up and integrated upstream and downstream enterprises, especially in the field of chip cost, will have a preemptive advantage. In the future competition, the first wave of price wars may be initiated by them. The pattern of LED companies swarming is bound to be replaced by the bleak pattern of swarming. In the lighting market of the next 5-10 years, after the sorrows and sorrows, the king of the new transitional era will inevitably follow the bodies of a group of people and die for death. In this era, the strong enterprises in the traditional lighting field do not have the inherent advantages to dominate the future competitive landscape.
Secondly, LEDs have the characteristics of point light sources, which creates a broad imagination space for application-oriented enterprises. Therefore, in the current lighting source of the traditional light source era, such as brackets, spotlights, ceiling lamps, ball guns, etc., the light source is replaced by LEDs is only the first step, perhaps, after 5-10, those designers with imaginative imagination, With its outstanding talents, LED application design will be brought into a new era that we can't imagine now.
Finally, mentioning the development of LED enterprises, the home appliance industry and the mobile phone industry may be used as a reference. We can give the industry a rough judgment: the product power era - the channel power era - the brand power era - the integration power era - the capital power era. In other words, the growth path of the entire LED enterprise can be understood as a product-driven channel, a channel to enhance the brand, a brand extension product line, and a capital integration product and brand.
Therefore, the LED workshop-type enterprises in the former shop and the back factory are busy making time to earn a few years of quick money. The cake of the future does not belong to you. In the future LED companies, I think there will be two types of enterprises that will be the king of competition. The first one is the technology-driven enterprises led by capital. They are mostly shaped products or even semi-finished products. The cost technology will be a predictable competitive advantage. Another type of enterprise is the downstream LED creative application enterprise. Their competitive advantage is market differentiation, deep understanding of light and environment, and deep insight into human nature. On this basis, it will be their own customized light environment solution. Unrivaled competitive advantage.