The overall trend of the chemical industry is determined by the downward growth of fertilizers

As a basic raw material for chemical products, the demand mainly depends on export manufacturing and real estate. A further slowdown in international demand in 2009 will continue to affect China’s exports. The growth in demand in the next two years may be basically stagnant. The slump in the domestic real estate market and the sharp decline in new construction areas will also affect the demand for a large number of basic chemical raw materials. At the same time, the national series of fiscal stimulus policies have limited demand for chemical products. From the experience in 1998, the industry may remain depressed for 2-3 years. The bottom of the profit of the chemical industry will appear in the first quarter of next year. Since the second quarter, due to the consumption of social stocks, there will be slight improvement, but there is little possibility of a substantial rebound.
The growth of demand for chemical fertilizer alone in chemical products is relatively certain, and the national series of supportive agriculture policies will stimulate the sown area of ​​grain to increase by more than 2%. The overall decline in fertilizer prices will also help increase the purchasing power of farmers. In 2009, the overall demand for chemical fertilizers is expected to increase by about 5%. The price of nitrogenous fertilizers will rise significantly in early 2009. The profitability of nitrogen fertilizer companies is relatively good due to cost advantage. Hualu Hengsheng is recommended. The company has the cost advantage of mature coal-water slurry gasification technology and multi-generation advantages. The increase in load and coal price will further reduce costs and the performance will be relatively stable. Carefully recommended Jianfeng Chemical and Sichuan Meifeng.
Carefully recommended Xingfa Group's phosphorus chemical industry bottomed out. At the beginning of 2009, it was able to see a slight rebound in the bottom. Meanwhile, the price of phosphate ore has a long-term upside and the performance is relatively stable. It is prudent to recommend Yantai Wanhua’s MDI cost to be internationally competitive and its production capacity grow steadily. International production companies are expected to reduce operating rates to stabilize prices. Despite the overall earnings trend, the performance is still relatively stable. Prudently recommend Xin'an Co., Ltd., glyphosate and organic silicon have advantages in terms of scale and cost, and the organic silicon and glyphosate industries all bottomed out. In 2010, the business performance re-growth.
In addition, the overall rebound in the sector may bring trading opportunities. The chemical base material company's 2009 performance will drop significantly. Because the PPI in the chemical industry is positively related to corporate profits, the oil price may rebound substantially in the second half of 2009, which will bring about an overall rebound in the chemical sector. The main companies are Shenyang Chemicals, Bluestar New Materials, and Shanxi Three-Dimensional. In addition, as corporate profits generally fall to the bottom, mergers and acquisitions of the industry will become more frequent, and there will be industry consolidation opportunities for central enterprises with adequate cash flow and local-dominated enterprises.

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