Machinery Industry: Expected to bottom out in the third quarter

The machinery industry is expected to bottom out in the third quarter. We judge that the most difficult period for construction machinery in the early cycle has passed, and that cyclical industries such as construction machinery, machine tools, and industrial energy-saving equipment may resume in the second half of the year. Power plants, new types of coal chemicals, etc. The start of a batch of major projects will benefit related equipment companies.

To maintain the industry's bullish rating, it is recommended to focus on the deployment of relatively cyclical scrapers, machine tools, industrial energy-saving equipment, and other companies, and pay close attention to the investment opportunities arising from the launch of major projects.

Construction machinery has experienced the most difficult period With the reopening of a number of major infrastructure projects such as railways and water conservancy projects, and the improvement in the sales of the property market, we have determined that the most difficult period of demand for construction machinery has passed and that the demand for major products will gradually improve in the second half of the year. We expect that construction machinery will grow by about 15% in 2012, and sales of major varieties will increase by around 10%.

According to the Federation of Machinery Industry, the sales value of construction machinery in the first four months of 2012 was 19.73 billion yuan, an increase of 0.69% year-on-year, and the growth rate was down by about 34 percentage points from 2011; export output value was 11 billion yuan, accounting for 5.58%. , an increase of 43.89%.

From a trend point of view, construction machinery continued its downward trend in the second quarter. The sales of main products for excavators in May was 10,870 units in May, an increase of -24% year-on-year, and the decline rate of about 40% from the previous April has been significantly narrowed. The sales growth of key enterprises such as Sany Heavy Industry (600031, stocks) and Liugong etc. has been positive.

Machine tools still have downward pressure Considering that the machine tool industry cycle lags behind construction machinery, we believe that machine tools will continue to decline in the third quarter. It is expected that the growth rate of the machine tool industry in 2012 will be between 10% and 15%.

According to data from the Federation of Machinery Industry, in the first four months of 2012, the sales value of the domestic machine tool industry was 221.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.01%, and the growth rate was down 16% from 2011. Among them, the export value of 13.2 billion yuan, accounting for 5.96%, an increase of 14.12%; the main product of the first four months of gold-cutting machine production increased -8.85%, machine tool numerical control equipment increased by 169.86%.

The rapid decline in the growth rate of heavy mining machinery demand Although the National Development and Reform Commission reviewed and approved the Guangxi Chenggang Port and Guangdong Zhanjiang steel projects in the past period, taking into account the overall situation of overcapacity and the decline in corporate profits of the steel industry, it is expected that the Machinery is still hard to be optimistic.

According to data from the Federation of Machinery Industry, in the first four months of 2012, the sales value of domestic heavy mining machinery industry was 274.2 billion yuan, an increase of 15.03% over the same period of last year. Among them, the export value of 21 billion yuan, accounting for 7.66%, an increase of 29.57%; major products of mining equipment, metal smelting equipment and metal rolling equipment in April before the output rose by 31.44%, 17.67% and 23.45% respectively.