Market share of autos in Japan continues to decline

Compared with the same period of last year, from January to November, Japanese passenger car market share still fell. Due to the slowdown in the growth rate of the auto market, auto dealers have experienced high inventory levels, declining economic returns and large losses.

Recently, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers released China's November car sales data. The data shows that in November China's car sales only slightly increased from the previous month and the same period last year, the year-on-year increase was lower than last month. In the first 11 months, the accumulative growth of China's auto production and sales continued to decline. In November, 2.0909 million vehicles were sold, an increase of 5.2% from the previous month and an increase of 2.3% over the same period of the previous year. From January to November, China's auto sales were 21,079,100 units respectively, an increase of 6.1% over the same period of last year, an increase of 7.4% from the same period of last year.

Among them, the slight increase in the market share of self-owned brand passenger vehicles in both the chain and year-on-year was the highlight of the November data. The performance of Japanese brands is the most worrying. Compared with the same period of last year, from January to November, the market share of Japanese passenger cars continued to decline, and other foreign brands showed a certain increase.

Under the glory days, the days of car dealers are getting sadder. As the slowdown in the growth of the auto market slowed down, auto dealers experienced high inventory levels, declining economic returns, and large losses.

It is reported that due to the serious situation in automobile circulation, the increasingly serious increase in car sales prices, and the unreasonable production and sales system, the China Automobile Dealers Association has recently submitted to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Commerce the “high turnover of dealerships in the automotive circulation sector, causing large areas. Loss Report (hereinafter referred to as "Report"), then the association will organize auto dealers to interview manufacturers and discuss the establishment of a fair competition auto market mechanism.

Japanese crisis

The market share of Japanese cars began in 2010 and has been declining for four consecutive years. In particular, after the “Diaoyu Island Incident” in September 2012, it was a big injury. In 2013, with various marketing methods and continuous introduction of new vehicles, sales of Japanese cars rebounded sharply, showing a strong return to the market, which led Japanese manufacturers to have high expectations for 2014.

However, according to Wilson's market monitoring data for September, the annual target completion rates of Toyota, Nissan, and Honda in the first three quarters of 2014 were only 66%, 63.6%, and 53.7%, respectively. In the Geshi Automobile Research Institute's statistics, from the cumulative sales in the first 11 months, Mazda's 16.1% growth was the largest, Toyota also has 12.2%, the two companies are expected to achieve year-on-year growth this year. The accumulated sales volume in the 11 months before Nissan increased by as low as 1.7% year-on-year, and there is a risk that sales will continue to grow throughout the year. Honda is down 1.4% from the same period of last year. If it cannot do anything in December, it may be less than 2013.

In view of this, Gasgoo Automotive Research Institute believes that Japanese cars were originally expected to have a total of 4 million vehicles sold in China in 2014, but so far it has only completed about 80%. Judging from the target of each car company and the completion rate, it is necessary to achieve an alarming year-on-year increase in the last month and a new monthly sales volume in China. Therefore, the Japanese automakers may have the result of collective bouncing in this year’s target in China, and the total sales volume of 4 million vehicles may also be eventually broken.

In addition to political and other external factors, the Japanese automobile companies' conservative attitude toward the Chinese market and the lack of localization capabilities over the years are considered to be the main reasons why Japanese cars are now in trouble. In terms of building a car, the Japanese have the spirit of a craftsman. From the perspective of products, the competitiveness of Japanese automotive products has considerable advantages. However, in terms of product introduction and marketing, Japanese cars have not kept pace with the times in recent years.

Take the new Accord, for example, the new Accord is recognized by the industry as the best quality car in the mid-level car, and many of the indicators even exceed the magotan, but it is difficult to get rid of the fate of Japanese brands in the mid-level car. This is precisely because of the profound changes in the market that have gone far beyond the expectations of marketing decision makers. At the beginning of the listing, the new Accord only pushed up the version of the version to give the impetuous auto market an impression that the price of the new Accord was too high. In terms of product value, Kwong Ben also did not give consumers appropriate communication and explanation. This year Guangben had to make official adjustments to the price of the new Accord, which further undermined the gold content of the Accord brand itself.

Taking Rexach as an example, Lexus has not been conducted in China for various reasons, as the most competitive brand of Japanese auto companies, and all luxury brands have made in China to seize the high point of growth of China's future luxury cars. Localization. In this case, Lexus will have to be very difficult to get better performance.

Obviously, all of the above have greatly limited the development of Japanese cars and eventually led to the decline in sales volume today. However, it is worth noting that, under the circumstance, Japanese cars are also waiting for a chance to re-emerge.

Zhang Zhiyong, an expert in the automotive industry, believes that from the history of the development of the Chinese automobile market, Japanese car brands have occupied the largest market share of foreign brands for a long time. Therefore, with the easing of Sino-Japanese relations, consumers in the Chinese auto market will respond to the Japanese auto brand. The Japanese auto market share will gradually pick up, and at least it will not continue to deteriorate.

Perhaps for the Japanese cars, the biggest killer is the hybrid technology that will be widely promoted in the country. The data shows that as of the end of September 2014, the cumulative sales volume of Toyota hybrid vehicles has exceeded 7 million vehicles. At present, in Japan, one of the two cars sold by Toyota is a hybrid vehicle. Japanese brands are looking forward to the fact that hybrid power can reshape the brand image of Japanese cars in China just like the public’s “TSI plus DSG”.

Dealer problems

The performance of Japanese cars is only the tip of the iceberg in the status quo of the auto market this year. Although the auto market is still growing positively in terms of overall sales volume, under the increasingly fierce competition, the potential for industry development is gradually exposed.

The “2014 CADA Auto Dealer Satisfaction Survey Results” (hereinafter referred to as “Satisfaction Survey”) published by the China Automobile Dealing Association on December 1 showed that only 30% of automobile dealers were profitable in 2014, and 40% of dealers’ monthly average inventory. More than 2 months. Recently, media reports have reported that BMW dealers in China are under pressure to collectively “forbear” and apply to BMW for an additional rebate of RMB 6 billion, further reflecting the current difficulties encountered by car dealers.

In response, Xiao Zhengsan, the new secretary general of the China Circulation Association, said that the ecological chain of the entire automobile industry is gradually deteriorating. A lot of car manufacturers disregard changes in the market environment and continue to produce according to the planned economy and the seller's market. This has directly caused pressure on dealers to keep increasing inventory, and nearly 70% of dealers face losses.

It is reported that several BMW dealers have jointly submitted a petition letter to Ange, president and chief executive officer of BMW Greater China, in recent days and put forward various requirements, including obtaining an additional rebate of RMB 6 billion and establishing a target for distribution. Business negotiation and other terms. And this year, the rumors of the “Brewer dealer’s loss of 20 million is not a deficit” were reported. Regarding this, there is news that BMW China also made a rapid response. The final result reached by both parties was less than 6 billion, which was distributed according to the proportion of dealer sales.

In view of this situation, the financial weekly reporter recently learned that the new version of the "Administrative Measures for the Implementation of Automobile Brand Sales" (hereinafter referred to as the "Measures") is nearing completion, and the new version of the "Measures" is expected to be implemented in early 2015.

It is reported that the new version of the "Measures" will restrict the irrational behaviors such as compulsory garages and tying of car models by auto manufacturers, but the brand licensing system will not change. The industry generally believes that the new version of the "Measures" gives dealers greater power to speak up and rebalance the relationship between automobile manufacturers and distributors. Policy changes will, to a certain extent, improve China's automobile circulation order and promote the balanced development of the automobile market.